De-Gassed – How Will You Fuel Your Classic Motorcycle in 2044?

“In a not-too-distant dystopian future, man's most precious resource – oil – has been depleted and the world plunged into war, famine and financial chaos.” So the scene is set for the original Mad Max movie in 1979. But little did we know that the scary voiceover predicting that the murder-making unobtanium, aka “guzzoline,” would be 180 degrees wrong. Instead, fuel is going to be something we gave up on purpose rather than at the wrong end of a sawn-off shotgun. Talk about a plot twist.

And as much as you or I might enjoy burning liquid dinosaurs and the rather splendid sound it makes as the intoxicating fumes are produced, there’s now little doubt that the world is headed away from oil and towards more sustainable sources of energy like solar, hydrogen and wind. Let’s face facts – Mister and Misses Average don’t ride motorcycles or really care about vehicles as a form of pleasure, all they want is to be able to take the kids to school and to go shopping, interspersed with the odd holiday to a beach/snowy mountain thrown in for laughs and memories. And what the masses want, the masses get.

The Long Goodbye

Most pundits agree; the next 20 years will see a slow but inevitable phasing out of fossil fuels in favour of vehicles powered by electricity and (possibly) hydrogen fuel cells. Whether they be from conservative or more radical backgrounds, most analysts are now saying that in 2044 there will be only a small minority of vehicles on your local roads that will be burning fossil fuels. Some will tell you it’s going to be almost none, but others are saying that it could be as high as 20%. But the end result is the same. Gasoline motorcycles will be even more of a minority than we are now.

The oil companies have done their research, too. The fact that you don’t see your local gas station frantically rebuilding their forecourts to remove fuel pumps and add charging stations speaks volumes about their timelines. They know it will be a very gradual change and that jumping the gun at this stage isn’t going to do them any good at all. So I think it’s safe to say that the transition will indeed be a long, slow one. That sound you just heard is the collective sigh of relief from the world’s classic motorcycle riders and collectors. But rest assured, it’s coming all the same.

With that said, the world’s two biggest automotive markets are the EU and California and there’s no splitting hairs on their behalf when it comes to adopting electric cars. They are very much pro EV and they will be the ones leading the sales charge. Car and bike manufacturers who want to continue making profits – i.e. all of them – will have to follow suit. Sure EV bikes aren’t a thing right now, but I’d bet my firstborn that they will be doing exactly the same thing as Tesla, Hyundai and Rivian in pretty much no time at all. The next generation of Toyota battery tech is due in 2026 and the company claims more than 800 km (500 miles) of driving range, 20 minute charging, and 20% lower prices. And all that from when they are pushing a family car around, not a tiny little motorcycle.

Not so Big Oil

How the world’s petroleum companies will fare during this transition is probably worthy of an entirely separate article, but as I understand it they knew that the risks of fossil fuels were likely to cause climate damage as far back as 1954. Their answer to this was to “publicly deny this science for decades and fund ongoing efforts to delay action on the climate crisis,” (theguardian.com – Jan 2024). So for some strange reason, I’m lacking a little bit of sympathy for their fast-approaching plight.

Still, I can see them using their vast reserves of cash to keep their share of the market intact, even if it does mean a wholesale move away from oil extraction and processing. But I can also see that in the gas/service stations (or “servos” as we call them Down Under) of 2044, including a bowser or two for ICE vehicles won’t be much of an issue for them. Ironically, we’ll likely see a reversal of the current status quo where a vast majority of the refueling areas will be fitted out for recharging stations, with the antique fossil fuel dispensers relegated to a far-flung corner thanks to the fact that a vast majority of their customers aren’t going to be using them.

And before the peanut gallery starts to hoot and holler about how batteries can’t haul loads and that they won’t be able to replace diesel ICE trucks for decades, I’d suggest you all Google “Cummins Hydrogen Engines”. You’re welcome.

Garage Gallons

I recently watched a well-known hot rod YouTuber as he pumped his hemi V8 full of fuel he clearly had stored in his own garage in a 44 gallon drum. I’m assuming quite a bit here but with America being “the land of the free” and all that, I reasoned that he probably purchased it from a local industrial supplier and had it delivered to his house. Could our fossil fuel future be this easy? As an example, just look at the race fuel industry. It’s always been run outside of the domestic consumer market and they’ve been delivering bespoke fuel products to a small but committed customer base since day dot. But while this does seem to be a very easy solution to the challenge of dwindling fuel supplies, I feel that it does have its inherent challenges and limitations.

While this “customer is king” and “individual rights” type capitalism may be cool in the uber consumer-friendly US of A, I can’t help but think of the safety issues it may cause if it takes off as a common practice. So while I can hear the freedom fanatics shouting from the rooftops as I type this sentence, I’m also fairly certain that most self-respecting home insurance companies will be jacking up your premiums and/or denying you a payout if they can reasonably link a fire in your home to the fact that you had an undisclosed fuel dump under the same roof as your family. And that's assuming the local authorities allow it in the first place. I have a sneaking suspicion that less liberal, more rules-based societies like Europe, Canada or Australia wouldn’t allow this and a quick Google tells me that it’s illegal to store more than 30 litres (8 gallons) of fuel “at home or a non-workplace premises” in the UK.

Frequent Fueler’s Club

Maybe you’re currently a member of a local motorcycle club? It makes sense to me that riders could try and band together to ensure a fossil fuel supply that is cheaper, more reliable and plentiful rather than all of us going it alone like the aforementioned Mad Max Rockatansky. And while it made sense to me at first, I reckon the devil’s in the details of this one. Sure, you’ll have more buying power and – if you’re a serious club with a clubhouse – a possible location that could be approved for bulk fuel storage.

But at what cost? The money you’ll save by shopping in bulk would be eaten up faster than a methanol Hayabusa doing a quarter mile by the expenses of installing tanks and equipment, approvals, licenses, maintenance and more of those pesky insurance premiums. It’s chump change for Big Oil when you are shifting hundreds and thousands of litres of fuel each day. But if all you are doing is fueling up a few dozen bikes once every Sunday I can’t see the outlay being recouped by the member’s fuel purchases unless you have a club with a membership equivalent to a decent-sized suburb.

This Moonshine Tastes Funny

Moving on, E85 is a popular pick for muscle cars enthusiasts mostly thanks to its ability to boost horsepower figures and subsequently rip more Mickey Thompsons to shreds at parking lot car meets. Fun fact for those of you who aren’t up to speed on alternative fuels; E85 is made up of 85% ethanol and just 15% fossil fuel. Of course regular ICE motors will spit the dummy if run on it thanks to the corrosive effects on the fuel system and the fact that engines need to be properly set up to run on it. But it can be done and it’s not overly expensive to achieve.

Remarkably, E100 fuel is widely available in Brazil straight from gas stations. How the whole country isn’t perpetually drunk I do not know, but this proves a point. If the ICE push comes to shove, you’ll always be able to distill ethanol and run your classic motorcycle on it just as long as you have the engineering chops to set the engine up or the future pesos to pay someone better qualified than yourself to do it. You’ll also be able to celebrate a successful Sunday ride by doing shots straight out of the bike’s tank, so there’s that.

Our Friends, the Cagers

Not having the balls to rest this entire argument on my own greasy, delicate shoulders I called upon Brian Wood, Secretary of the Motorcycle Council of New South Wales, to give us his undoubtedly more learned thoughts. I also approached the American Motorcycle Association for their thoughts, but at the time of publishing they hadn’t responded. Noting that they were his personal opinions and not the official stance of the council, Brian opened with a rather impressive stat. “There’s currently about 50,000 vehicles on Historic and Classic registration in New South Wales alone and they are owned by enthusiasts who no doubt will want to see them on the road well into the future as a way of preserving Australia’s motoring heritage.” A great point indeed. Now add similar enthusiasts in the US, UK, Europe and a horde of other Western countries and you’ll find yourself with quite the petroleum army.

“Back when cars were just being introduced you purchased petrol in one gallon tins,” continues Brian. “If traveling in remote areas you’d send these ahead by rail or horse and cart. Perhaps we’ll need to resort to this method again. But something tells me that in 2044, there will still be enough vintage cars and motorcycles around for enthusiasts to find ways to obtain enough petrol for their needs.” His addition of cars to the equation is an insightful observation and one worth expanding on. For once in our lives, motorcyclists will be looking to our four-wheeled brethren for help and not hindrance. The classic car fan base is just as big, if not bigger than the classic bike equivalent and by all indications they'll be just as interested in driving and showing their rides in 2044 as we’ll be.

Fuel’s Gold

The irony of us ICE bikers suffering from “range anxiety” in 2044 while owners of electric vehicles tootle around without a care in their world is not lost on me. The fact that it’ll be a total reversal of the current circumstances EV “early adopters” are forced to endure seems to be as cruel as it is ironic. But the key difference here is that while EV owners have zero alternative to recharge their vehicles unless they are willing to wait countless hours trying to fill up from a regular domestic outlet, motorcyclists can carry reserves of fuel either on their bike or on their back. No, it’s not an ideal solution, but getting a top-up that will hopefully get you to a refueling point sure beats having to pay for a flatbed truck to take you home.

As always, people love to worry. They worry about change and then they worry about the lack of change. They want more of something one day and less of it the next. So how will this all pan out? Will we be screwed in 2044 or is it all a storm in a fuel cup? I wasn’t sure. Then this morning in the shower it hit me like a bolt from the blue. Being a keen retro electronics guy, I drew on something other than motorcycles to hopefully form a decent parting thought. Look at old tech like vacuum tubes. Or Cassette tapes. Or records. Or film. Or even CDs. Yeah, I know it’s not exactly apples and apples, but all this old tech was supposed to go the way of the dinos and because of passionate nerds of one kind or another, you can still get them today. Yes, they are much more expensive than they should be and you’ll have to hunt for them, but that’s the price you pay when you fall in love with old machines.

So the answer is yes. Yes, you will be able to fuel your classic bike in 2044. Hell, if we don’t all kill ourselves in the culture wars first, you’ll be able to fuel it in 3044. Convenient it most definitely won't be and you’ll definitely be paying more for it than you are now. But because nothing quite fires off the synapses like the sound of music on a cassette tape, or the look of an old photo shot on film, or the smell of two-stroke and freshly shredded soil, I’d suggest it’s a price most of us will be more than willing to pay. Besides, we’ll always have ethanol. Hic.

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